How Google Can Get the Flu Right 31
An anonymous reader writes Google Flu Trends was developed in 2009 to improve forecasts of flu levels in the U.S. by utilising Google search data. This early example showcased the potential which lies in the exploitation of human digital traces which all of us leave behind by using online services. The rise of Google Flu Trends was only stopped when the service dramatically overestimated the number of flu incidences recently. The fall raised questions about the value of online data for predictions in general. However, a study published yesterday demonstrates that it is not only about data but also about the adaptiveness of algorithms used for predictions. Scientists combined historic flu levels as reported by the CDC with Google Flu Trends data using an algorithmic framework which is able to adapt to changes in human search behaviour. Their results show that Google Flu Trends data sets significantly add information to the forecasts of current flu levels.
I'm trying really hard (Score:1)
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So THIS is the Google-flu that people keep claiming they have!
overtraining? (Score:2)
we will see if this works next fall
Indirect measurement (Score:5, Insightful)
This is a very indirect way to measure and thus predict flu outbreaks. There are many things that could prompt people to search for and otherwise discuss the flu, beyond a person or their family actually having the flu. All it would take is a few major news sources to make mention of the flu, and there's a good chance there would be a surge in people searching for terms related to the flu. Further, other illnesses could be going around that have some flu-like symptoms which would also increase search results for the flu. Can't we just get this information from healthcare providers or insurance companies directly? (although the latter is probably charging an arm and leg for that information)
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I don't think Google was wrong in underestimating the number of cases, they just had trouble putting the human element. How many people are actually going to go to the doctor?
It assumed people would do the sane thing and consult a medical professional instead of trudging into work chugging DayQuil with a box of tissues so they're not seen like a slacker (because it's just a cold and you can't skip work for just a cold, c'mon).
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I think the opposite happens far more, that people refer to a cold that has them down for a day or two as the flu so as not to seem like a slacker by the same metric. I had the flu in January, and could not really function well at all for two and a half weeks.
Re:Indirect measurement (Score:4, Funny)
We don't want hard data, we want predictive data that health care or insurance companies don't have yet. Or maybe charge too much for.
So scientists, linked in the article, are trying to add data points outside of searches and make better predictions.
In fact, they may have read your comment and gone back in time to address your concerns. Well done!
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Not to mention the fact, when people have a common cold for a couple days, they often refer to it as "having the flu" ... Having gotten the flu back in January, and the two and a half weeks it took me out for, I can say it really isn't that mild generally.
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Perhaps, but if you don't get the flu shot, you're not only a higher risk of catching the flu, you're at a higher risk of transmitting it (by virtue of being a higher risk of catching it). Especially if you're a hero-worker who heroically goes in spread your mucous around.
Most of the flu hysteria I've seen has been more anti-vaccine than anti-flu.
Secondary problem (Score:2)
The other problem I have with the AC's post is that he describes a bad cold, not a case of the flue, which lasts at least 72 hours...
Per the CDC [cdc.gov] you're infectious a day before the symptoms hit, and remain infectious for 5-7 days after that.
So if you really have the flue, you should stay home a couple days longer even if you're feeling better after 3...
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For me it was about two and a half weeks of feeling ill, back in January (apparently a more harsh variety)
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Yeah, generally speaking if it doesn't knock you down for around a week it was at most a bad cold, not the flu. But over two weeks is a really bad one.
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250,000-500,000 people a year die from the flu, more than 50,000 in the US (that's more than both traffic accidents and gun deaths combined). It's not something to fuck around with.
It's sweet that you think the people giving you a hard time about the flu shot care about you. Sorry to burst your bubble, but nobody cares about you. They care about your elderly neighbor or the kid a few seats away on the bus, or the coworker with the pregnant wife. And you can and will give it to them before you even know you
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3 estimated guesses, actually, based on the flus most likely to be seen in North America. The flu is a rapidly-changing and complicated virus - all the more reason to reduce its chances of mutating back into something really dangerous, eh?
... blah blah blah stupid thiomersal conspiracy ...
Oh. You're not careless, you're just an idiot. Carry on - just stay away from, you know, people.
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250,000-500,000 people a year die from the flu, more than 50,000 in the US (that's more than both traffic accidents and gun deaths combined). It's not something to fuck around with.
There are many different viruses and bacteria (including Ebola) that have flu-like symptoms and based on the summary of methodology for these CDC numbers I don't believe the CDC is doing enough regular randomized testing with controls to determine how many of those flu deaths are actually "the flu" or something else with "flu-like symptoms".
There should be two types of randomized testing. First general monitoring, where the CDC pays doctors to perform blind tests on patients with certain symptoms. The
But the flu IS a big deal (Score:2)
You're often sick for a week, pretty commonly you get a secondary bacterial infection (like pneumonia or a sinus infection), and then you're sick for more than a week, and you might well be left with a lingering cough.
And BTW, "throw up a couple times" is NOT that common a flu symptom, though it CAN happen with flu. Typical symptoms are:
body aches
fever/chills
coughing
runny nose, sore throat, headach, pain around eyes
Vomiting/diarrhea is more common amongst children.
--PM
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You do realize that the flu killed more people in the 1900's than all the explosives, bullets and other tools of war combined, right?
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Google can get the pip (Score:2)
As far as I'm concerned.
The Emperor Has no Cold (Score:2)
Or what was it again. Is google going to guess the length of the nose of the emperor of China next, based on search items? And has it got the flu? Look , that there's a good correlation is clear, but the reliability of the results is very low. Next the NSA will be using those tools in order to find out how much they can get away with. Or wait, they already made their minds up about that.